Consistent achievement of superior results requires that our people understand Progressive’s objectives and their specific roles, and that their personal objectives dovetail with Progressive’s. Our objectives are ambitious, yet realistic.
We recognize that the dynamics of each distribution channel are very different and, therefore, have established a product management system responsible for achieving stated financial objectives over rolling five-year periods. Progressive monitors its financial policies continuously and strives to meet these targets annually. Experience always clarifies objectives and illuminates better policies. We constantly evolve as we monitor the execution of our policies and progress toward achieving our objectives.
Objectives
Profitability Progressive’s most important goal is for our insurance subsidiaries to produce an aggregate calendar-year underwriting profit of at least 4%. Our business is a composite of many product offerings defined in part by product type, distribution channel, geography, customer tenure and underwriting grouping. Each of these products has targeted operating parameters based on level of maturity, underlying cost structures, customer mix and policy life expectancy. Our aggregate goal is the balanced blend of these individual performance targets in any calendar year.
Growth Our goal is to grow as fast as possible, constrained only by our profitability objective and our ability to provide high-quality customer service. Progressive is a growth-oriented company and management incentives are tied to profitable growth.
We report Personal Lines and Commercial Auto results separately. We further break down our Personal Lines’ results by channel (Agency and Direct) to give shareholders a clearer picture of the business dynamics of each distribution method and their respective rates of growth. Aggregate expense ratios and aggregate growth rates disguise the true nature and performance of each business.
Financial Policies
Progressive balances operating risk with risk of investing and financing activities in order to have sufficient capital to support all the insurance we can profitably underwrite and service. Risks arise in all operational and functional areas, and therefore must be assessed holistically, accounting for the offsetting and compounding effects of the separate sources of risk within Progressive.
We use risk management tools to quantify the amount of capital needed, in addition to surplus, to absorb consequences of foreseeable events such as unfavorable loss reserve development, litigation, weather-related catastrophes and investment-market corrections. Our financial policies define our allocation of risk and we measure our performance against them. If, in our view, future opportunities meet our financial objectives and policies, we will invest capital in expanding business operations. Underleveraged capital will be returned to investors. We expect to earn a return on equity greater than its cost. Presented is an overview of Progressive’s Operating, Investing and Financing policies.
Objectives and Policies Scorecard
| Nine months ended September 30, | |||||||
| Financial Results | Target | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 5 Years1 | 10 Years1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underwriting margin—Progressive | 4% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 9.4% |
| —Industry2 | na | (e) | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | (.1)% |
| Net premiums written growth | (a) | (2)% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 14% | 15% |
| Policies in force growth—Personal Auto | (a) | 2% | 1% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
| —Special Lines | (a) | 8% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 15% |
| —Commercial Auto | (a) | 7% | 7% | 11% | 15% | 19% | 21% |
| Companywide premiums-to-surplus ratio | (b) | na | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | na | na |
| Investment allocation—fixed:equity | (c) | 83%:17% | 84%:16% | 85%:15% | 86%:14% | na | na |
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | < 30% | 28.9% | 14.8% | 17.4% | 19.9% | na | na |
| Return on average shareholders’ equity (ROE)3 | (d) | 20.8% | 25.3% | 25.0% | 30.0% | 26.1% | 21.5% |
| Comprehensive ROE4 | (d) | 23.5% | 28.4% | 24.1% | 30.4% | 27.9% | 22.9% |
(a) Grow as fast as possible, constrained only by our profitability objective and our ability to provide high-quality customer service.
(b) Determined separately for each insurance subsidiary.
(c) Allocate 75% to 100% in fixed-income securities with the balance in common equities.
(d) Progressive does not have a predetermined target for ROE.
(e) Data not available.
na = not applicable
1) Represents results over the respective time period; growth represents average annual compounded rate of increase.
2) Represents the U.S. personal auto insurance industry.
3) Based on net income.
4) Based on comprehensive income. Comprehensive ROE is consistent with Progressive’s policy to manage on a total return basis and better reflects growth in shareholder value. For a reconciliation of net income to comprehensive income and for the components of comprehensive income, see Progressive’s Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity and Note 10 – Other Comprehensive Income, in Progressive’s 2006 Annual Report to Shareholders.
achievements
We are convinced that the best way to maximize shareholder value is to achieve these financial objectives and policies consistently. A shareholder who purchased 100 shares of Progressive for $1,800 in our first public stock offering on April 15, 1971, owned 92,264 shares on December 31, 2006, with a market value of $2,234,634, for a 22.1% compounded annual return, compared to the 7.7% return achieved by investors in the Standard & Poor’s 500 during the same period. In addition, the shareholder received dividends of $2,999 in 2006, bringing total dividends received to $37,334 since the shares were purchased.
In the ten years since December 31, 1996, Progressive shareholders have realized compounded annual returns, including dividend reinvestment, of 16.0%, compared to 8.4% for the S&P 500. In the five years since December 31, 2001, Progressive shareholders’ returns were 14.4%, compared to 6.2% for the S&P 500. In 2006, the returns were (17.0)% on Progressive shares and 15.8% for the S&P 500.
Over the years, when we have had adequate capital and believed it to be appropriate, we have repurchased our shares. In addition, as our Financial Policies state, we will repurchase shares to neutralize the dilution from equity-based compensation programs and return any underleveraged capital to investors. During 2006, we repurchased 39,069,743 Common Shares, with 3,182,497 repurchased prior to the stock split and 35,887,246 repurchased after the stock split. The total cost to repurchase these shares was $1.2 billion, with an average cost, on a split-adjusted basis, of $24.98 per share. We did not split our treasury shares. Since 1971, we have spent $4.6 billion repurchasing our shares, at an average cost of $4.60 per share, on a split-adjusted basis.
Operations Summary
Agency Business
| Nine months ended September 30, | ||||||
| 2007 | 2006 | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums written (in billions) | $ | 5.9 | $ | 6.1 | (4)% | |
| Net premiums earned (in billions) | $ | 5.8 | $ | 6.0 | (3)% | |
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 71.7 | 67.7 | 4.0 pts. | |||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 21.3 | 20.2 | 1.1 pts. | |||
| Combined ratio | 93.0 | 87.9 | 5.1 pts. | |||
| Auto policies in force (in thousands) | 4,459.2 | 4,482.4 | (1)% | |||
Direct Business
| Nine months ended September 30, | ||||||
| 2007 | 2006 | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums written (in billions) | $ | 3.4 | $ | 3.4 | —% | |
| Net premiums earned (in billions) | $ | 3.3 | $ | 3.3 | 1% | |
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 70.2 | 66.3 | 3.9 pts. | |||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 21.1 | 20.2 | .9 pts. | |||
| Combined ratio | 91.3 | 86.5 | 4.8 pts. | |||
| Auto policies in force (in thousands) | 2,571.9 | 2,418.7 | 6% | |||
Commercial Auto
| Nine months ended September 30, | ||||||
| 2007 | 2006 | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums written (in billions) | $ | 1.4 | $ | 1.5 | (3)% | |
| Net premiums earned (in billions) | $ | 1.4 | $ | 1.4 | 1% | |
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 68.1 | 60.8 | 7.3 pts. | |||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 20.3 | 19.1 | 1.2 pts. | |||
| Combined ratio | 88.4 | 79.9 | 8.5 pts. | |||
| Policies in force (in thousands) | 540.9 | 505.8 | 7% | |||
See Archived Version:
Objectives, Policies and Operations Summary, 2007 2nd QuarterObjectives, Policies and Operations Summary, 2007 1st Quarter
Objectives, Policies and Operations Summary, 2006 Annual Report
